CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2025-10-03T05:53:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2025-10-03T05:53ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/41585/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the east in STEREO A COR2, SOHO LASCO C2/C3, and faintly in GOES CCOR-1 coronagraph imagery. The source is likely related to an M1.5 flare from Active Region 14236 (N14W12) starting around 2025-10-03T05:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131, 171, 195, 284, 304 and STEREO A EUVI 195 and 304 imagery. Post eruptive arcades are visible starting around 2025-10-03T06:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 171 and 195 imagery. Arrival signature at 2025-10-06T06:35Z generally characterized by slight increase in total magnetic field strength from 4 to 6 nT and stabilizing field components with time/apparent flux rope signature, as well as smoothing in density, velocity, and temperature data.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-10-06T06:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-10-06T11:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/41587/1 Model Inputs: 2025-10-03T05:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=11.0, Speed=442.0, HalfAngle=23.0, Time21.5=2025-10-03T13:43Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-10-06T11:00Z (+- 7 hours) (kp)90=3 (kp)180=5 Other Location(s) Impact: Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-04T19:40Z OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-10-06T07:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20251003_134300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 65.37 hour(s)
Difference: -4.42 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2025-10-03T13:13Z
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